Coronovirus Mortgage and Real Estate Crisis of 2020- NOT !

[Chasegame two]

I'll take an opposing viewpoint here, from my good friend Moe, and based upon my experience as a businessman, investor & real estate investor since 1981.

The current Coronavirus drama, angst, layoffs etc. are based upon uncertainty and rightly so. Ditto at the onset of the previous Sub-Prime crisis.

The difference this time will be:

1. The uncertainty will be resolved fairly quickly (malaria medicine etc) with permanent vaccination talk further easing concerns.
2. The most currently affected businesses will quickly re-open, re-hire. Late Spring/Early Summer.
3. The current POTUS (like him or hate him) understands business and is surrounded by business experts (not 'yes men')
4. Mortgage lenders/investors are being overly paranoid and cautious-fearing deja vu, but are comparing oranges to apples.
5. There is too much pent up demand for homes.
6. Before someone in China ate bat soup (or whatever), the U.S. economy was raging on solid fundamentals, record low unemployment, increasing wages and on and on and on......

In summary, this virus issue will be resolved very soon. In the very (very) short term there will be some economic trauma that will take a few months to recover from. But this is no way going to replicate the sub-prime crisis. No way.

 

[TheAwakenOne]

ChaseGame2.. I like your positive wishful thinking. And I am guessing you have all your money in stocks and/or realestate. You still have a little time to back out. And as an experienced businessman, investor, realtor, I hope you don't take stimulus money like the other businesses.

1. It isn't different any of the time. they all had uncertainties. As we agree there is uncertainty. Uncertainty is bad for the market. They pointed out that it will take until next year for a vacc to be available, the malaria med is temporary solution to slowdown the damage. I saw an interview with Trump, people asked him a question, "What do you think will happen to the economy and the market?" His respond was, "Don't worry about the economy. Be worried about not getting sick."

2. Businesses are still opened holding on a thin thread. They didn't just closed theirs door and fired their employees over night, but its getting there. And once closed, it isn't like they can open quickly. Some can and some can not. Depends if they kept up with payments, what damages were done, and other factors. Once the pandemic is over, people aren't going to be the same. They aren't going to buy or eat or do the same things.

3. People use data. With information so available, one can easily find the truth without hearing from speculators or lobbyists.. No need to be a follower or a yeyman.

4. Lenders/Investors, they are in it for the money. But only makes money if people pay back. If they see signs people can't pay they will back out. If they see uncertainties they will back out. As we agree there is uncertainty.

5. I guess as human, we want everything. It isn't just a home. specially, when someone else allows us to buy it on credit. It isn't just homes are pent up, everything else. When there is no lending, anyone thinks these things will continue to be pent up?

6. That is true. The U.S. economy was raging on solid fundamentals, record low unemployment, increasing wages. That's because the U.S. is using their no limit credit card to make it all happen. National debt ring a bell? See how the number jump faster than the millisecond at www.usdebtclock.org. The same group of people are using the same no limit credit card to keep the US economy holding up, through this pandemic. Why? they know the truth. Depends who got sick and how bad the virus damaged their body, they may not be able do things they once can. So forget about low unemployment or increasing wages/salaries.

Within a month, the stock market is down 30%. Why? People know. It doesn't take much to see. How many months do you think it will take to be wiped clean? The bottom-line is that the "no limit credit card" does have a limit.

 

[isisis]

Way too many variables to prognosticate with any accuracy. We're in uncharted waters. Fasten your seatbelts, it'll be interesting to say the least.

 

[isisisLover]

Lets the defaults begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Erik Sandstrom]

Lets the defaults begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's not hope for defaults, these are human beings, homeowners that have families living in homes. None of us want another crisis to occur except for the people looking to capitalize on lower home values. This pandemic is nothing to joke about and I sincerely hope all of our members are as prepared as they can be. At this point as ChaseGame noted, the uncertainty is what's causing the most turmoil in the market. We don't know what is going to happen day by day, it's too early to tell but the signs are sure pointing to another recession and crisis.

If you talked to me a couple years ago, I knew something like this was coming but I thought it was going to relate to cost of goods increasing and not housing being impacted. This pandemic is something that I could have never predicted and just like isisis mentioned "Fasten your seatbelts" because it's going to be a wild ride.

I do hope everyone is able to pull through this better than before...praying for all of our members here at LoanSafe, during these times we really do need to stick together.

 

[GWBCasualty]

"Economy was raging".....

Lol... yup. Stock market propped by FED "is not QE" and rates cuts to keep growth rate of real economy in line to someone's hopes for re-election.

Being in a "news bubble" while the stock market is in a bubble is a very dangerous proposition to one's wealth

#3 in your post says it all... everyone that wasn't a "yes man" has been fired by the business man with more bankruptcies on record than most forum members... going bankrupt while running casinos must take some special understanding of business.

FFS....

 

[isisis]

Lets the defaults begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Technically speaking not making monthly payments in this situation might not be a "default". There's something in contact law called a force majeure (Latin for "superior force") which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties occurs. Performance must be made impossible by an unanticipated event that could not have been foreseen or guarded against in the contract.

A typical list of force majeure events might include war, riots, fire, flood, pandemic, hurricane, typhoon, earthquake, lightning, explosion, strikes, lockouts, slowdowns, prolonged shortage of energy supplies, and acts of state or governmental action prohibiting or impeding any party from performing its respective obligations. In commercial contracts there is often a clause modifying or defining terms in the event of a force majeure. Here's an article from National Law Review addressing COVID-19 as a force majeure in commercial contracts.
https://www.natlawreview.com/articl...-can-force-majeure-clauses-excuse-performance

Force majeure is an event not a doctrine; absent a defining clause in the contract the concept would be used to support the doctrines of frustration or impossibility.

Not necessarily recommending this as it can be frustrating, nearly impossible and economically prohibitive to convince a court of the outlandish notion that contract law principals should be applicable in the context of a mortgage loan contract. That is to say those principals that protect both parties to the contract.

 

[Chasegame two]

Technically speaking not making monthly payments in this situation might not be a "default". There's something in contact law called a force majeure (Latin for "superior force") which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties occurs. Performance must be made impossible by an unanticipated event that could not have been foreseen or guarded against in the contract.

A typical list of force majeure events might include war, riots, fire, flood, pandemic, hurricane, typhoon, earthquake, lightning, explosion, strikes, lockouts, slowdowns, prolonged shortage of energy supplies, and acts of state or governmental action prohibiting or impeding any party from performing its respective obligations. In commercial contracts there is often a clause modifying or defining terms in the event of a force majeure. Here's an article from National Law Review addressing COVID-19 as a force majeure in commercial contracts.
https://www.natlawreview.com/articl...-can-force-majeure-clauses-excuse-performance

Force majeure is an event not a doctrine; absent a defining clause in the contract the concept would be used to support the doctrines of frustration or impossibility.

Not necessarily recommending this as it can be frustrating, nearly impossible and economically prohibitive to convince a court of the outlandish notion that contract law principals should be applicable in the context of a mortgage loan contract. That is to say those principals that protect both parties to the contract.

Oy vey. With all due respect, I hope this type of 'lawyer speak' doesn't influence decisions that Mom and Pop may make on paying their mortgages.

It may be stimulating for lawyers to debate 'force majeure' or whatever majeure, with each other, but I doubt Mom and Pop will appreciate lawyers doing it in court on Mom and Pops dime.

 

[Chasegame two]

"Economy was raging".....

Lol... yup. Stock market propped by FED "is not QE" and rates cuts to keep growth rate of real economy in line to someone's hopes for re-election.

Being in a "news bubble" while the stock market is in a bubble is a very dangerous proposition to one's wealth

#3 in your post says it all... everyone that wasn't a "yes man" has been fired by the business man with more bankruptcies on record than most forum members... going bankrupt while running casinos must take some special understanding of business.

FFS....

"......going bankrupt while running casinos must take some special understanding of business."

TRUE.

 

[moretrouble]

This is a gift from GOD. He is punishing the wrong do-ers. This is why some will go away and some stay. KARMA. When one gets it, just sit back and count the bads and the goods. If there isn't enough goods, just prepare to say good-bye. It is Elohim Yahweh way of telling us all to behave. tTt

I think you're right. Somebody posted on Yahoo: "When the con-man thinks he had us all fooled, blatantly ignored the laws, God shows us who is the real BOSS". I am in great shape, in default for 11 years, another 6 months won't matter.

 

[Erik Sandstrom]

This is a gift from GOD. He is punishing the wrong do-ers. This is why some will go away and some stay. KARMA. When one gets it, just sit back and count the bads and the goods. If there isn't enough goods, just prepare to say good-bye. It is Elohim Yahweh way of telling us all to behave. tTt

This forum isn't about god or faith, more about helping people with mortgages that are in need. You can continue believing in your faith and having your own opinion, I won't knock you there. But this being a gift from god, a pandemic - really?

 

[Chasegame two]

Erik Sander, don't worry GOD loves all of us and you too. Everything is about the lord. Our lord is complicated; the gift is complicated too. you may not see it now. and it may not work in everyone's favor. Like for people who are heavily invested in stocks, and possibly for people who also invested heavily in properties... those people can kiss their money good bye.

As for me, I would never invest in either. I don't have money. I have nothing to lose or win. I did my time and learned my lesson. I figured out that as a buyer of real estate, no one was on my side. Even the buyer agent wasn't on my side. they all got paid on commission, even uncle sam. So they all were pushing the price to be as highest as they can.

So isisisLover, what is the lesson that you learned?

Hopefully it's not that you're a victim?

 

[Chasegame two]

This forum isn't about god or faith, more about helping people with mortgages that are in need. You can continue believing in your faith and having your own opinion, I won't knock you there. But this being a gift from god, a pandemic - really?

I'm with Erik on this one- 100%. This forum helped me to gain some perspective and knowledge that allowed me to decide on a plan of action best for my family. Because of it, we ultimately had an unexpected and very favorable outcome. I contribute here because I want to try to help others. Perhaps give them some hope that good things do happen. The website glitches frustrate the crap out of me because I can't reply (still) to older threads. I started this thread because I thought a different perspective would stimulate valuable debate and it kind of felt like there may have been some misguided hope that this pandemic would indeed parallel the sub-prime crisis. It may, but I still think it's an apples vs oranges comparison.

Sub-prime was from incredibly complex and multi layered financial imbalances that started in the real estate sector. So, although ultimately it affected many- many were not affected and could never be affected.

Coronovirus can affect everyone and anyone, but it is external and it is defined. Because of this, the worlds best are working 24/7 to solve it. Compare this to the sub prime crisis, where many of the world's smartest and wealthiest were not interested because it didn't and couldn't affect them.

 

[Erik Sandstrom]

IsisisLover, RidingAndChasingToo & BigFrog you're very close to getting banned from the forum. I see that you are creating multiple user names under the forum acting as if you are different people. I have absolutely no problem banning your IP, I've been hesitant to do that because you do contribute to our forum often but if this continues we will have to say goodbye.

 

[IsisisLover]

I am not sure what is wrong here? Are you saying you are banning us because we have the same IP and Considering we are the same person? People from various places share IP. Like Starbuck!! On top of that, this particular thread doesn't require logon. Must be a reason for that. Maybe it allows anonymous.

I think you should think a little harder. A threat from the dumb!

 

[OneHugeMess]

It's so sad that PattZZ is so miserable she (he?) finds the need to come & troll on here. For those of us who live in the real world, not fantasyland -- this virus is a complete disaster. I just braved the elements this morning to get to a Target store that had restocked overnight.

By some miracle, when I got there 10 mins after opening, they still had Hand Sanitizer. I already have some at home, but will have run out if things continue like this for two more weeks. I also purchased more household essentials, and groceries. I had to go today, even though, I didn't want to - because I don't know when I'll get another chance. It's horrible here in New York.

Meanwhile... my renter, who had terrific credit and has never paid late in the almost three years they've lived at my property, called me a few days ago - to warn me, they may have trouble paying all of their rent in April. I told them they could pay half, and we would figure it out in May. I still have to make my own mortgage payment, as well as HOA Dues for that property - even though they can't afford it themselves. I'll be fine, but I can't pull this off forever.

I'm extremely worried. The economy has shut down. No one knows where the bottom of the abyss is, or when things will return to normal. This is not a time to be joking around when so many others are down on their luck.

 

[isisis]

Oy vey. With all due respect, I hope this type of 'lawyer speak' doesn't influence decisions that Mom and Pop may make on paying their mortgages.

It may be stimulating for lawyers to debate 'force majeure' or whatever majeure, with each other, but I doubt Mom and Pop will appreciate lawyers doing it in court on Mom and Pops dime.

Indeed and that's why in the last paragraph I did a disclaimer of sorts. It's a very technical issue that's not easily argued or won. I guess it's become my mission in life to point out the disparity between actual contract law principals and their curious lack of application in the context of the mortgage loan. An ongoing and unsolvable enigma to me.

Still perhaps some homeowner with no other hope and sinking fast might as a last resort see if it might help.

Oh BTW, "Oh vey" is a phrase generally reserved for use on the thread Bagels at a Bar Mitzvah. Just so you know.

 

[just_me]

Re: CARES Act. The stimulus& increased unemployment benefits approved! This will help people pay bills and rent. Ordinary things.

 

[lmg9512]

But for how long? Certainly not meant to carry my family past a month. We are in Southern California. Our mortgages in this state are about what the average married couple will be getting. So that money won't carry us long. Mean while everything is shut down with no end in sight.

Re: CARES Act. The stimulus& increased unemployment benefits approved! This will help people pay bills and rent. Ordinary things.

 

[Erik Sandstrom]

I'm right there with you Img9512, this quarantine is killing me.